EHEC, salmonella etc: new method helps to identify the causes of disease outbreaks
A computer-assisted method for the analysis of sales data in order to identify suspect foods more quickly
“In the event of a disease outbreak caused by pathogens such as EHEC, Campylobacter or Salmonella in food, the contaminated foods must be identified as quickly as possible in order to keep the number of affected persons down”, says Professor Dr. Dr. Andreas Hensel, President of the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR). In cooperation with the IBM Almaden Research Center and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the BfR has developed a probability-based method which can help to identify the cause of disease outbreaks more rapidly. By comparing the distribution patters of individual foods with the distribution patterns of the reported cases of illness, it is possible to narrow down the group of foods which may be the cause of the disease outbreak. The method compares data on sales volumes and locations of foods with the locations of the disease outbreak. If the outbreak is attributable to a single food, that food can be very effectively identified with this method. The system only works if the relevant product-related sales data are available. This is notably the case for packed foods which are marked with a unique product number.
Due to complex and often international flows of goods, determining the cause of a disease outbreak can, depending on the circumstances, take a long time. Against this background, the newly developed probability-based method can help to identify contaminated foods and thus establish the cause of the outbreak more quickly. The computer-supported comparison of the distribution patterns of individual foods with the distribution pattern of cases of illness attributed to the outbreak enables rapid localisation of a group of foods which may be responsible for the outbreak. The sales data includes information, for example, on the types and quantities of food sold in certain locations. The basic assumption of the method is that in most cases there is a close geographic connection between sales locations and sales volumes of food and the occurrence of cases of illness. This means that the method is especially suitable if the cause of the outbreak can be attributed to a single food a nd if this food is produced by only one manufacturer. The system is currently being developed further so that it will be possible in future to successful identify the cause, even if several contaminated foods are responsible for the outbreak. That can be the case, for example, if a contaminated ingredient is used in a variety of foods.
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