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Venezuela Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012

BMI View: Venezuela’s pharmaceutical industry will face increasingly harsh pricing policy which is unlikely to tackle the persistent medicine shortage problem. President Hugo Chávez's renewed attempts to regulate the country's pharmaceutical sector has prevented meaningful domestic and international investment in the Venezuelan drug industry, which will truly benefit both the Venezuelan people and pharmaceutical companies.
Headline Expenditure Projections
.. Pharmaceuticals: VEF33.26bn (US$5.45bn) in 2011 to VEF41.16bn (US$6.05bn) in 2012; +23.8% in local currency terms and +11% in US dollar terms. US forecast up due to new macro data.
.. Healthcare: VEF65.36bn (US$10.72bn) in 2011 to VEF79.22bn (US$11.65bn) in 2012; +21.2% in local currency terms and +8.7% in US dollar terms. US forecast up due to new macro data.
.. Medical devices: VEF9.63bn (US$1.58bn) in 2011 to VEF11.66bn (US$1.72bn) in 2012; +21.2% in local currency terms and 8.7% in US dollar terms. US forecast up due to new macro data.
Risk/Reward Rating:
BMI’s average Business Environment Rating (BER) for the 17 Americas markets has reduced from 50.4 out of the maximum 100 points to 50.1 in Q212. Venezuela is ranked as the 14th most attractive market, scoring 39.5 out of 100, below the regional average score of 50.1, above only Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala.
Venezuela’s suffers due to weak intellectual property (IP) rights, an unfavourable business environment and increasingly strict medicine price controls. Additionally, while we view the Venezuelan government's recent decision to devalue the currency as positive for the country's fiscal revenues, it will also negatively impact pharmaceutical market growth in US dollar terms.
Key Trends & Developments:
.. In February 2012, Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez warned consumer goods companies, including transnational firms, to obey the government's price control measures. He said companies will be nationalised if they fail to comply with the new and controlled prices. Consumers are being charged too much for personal care and cleaning items, said Chávez. The controls are likely to affect US-based firms Procter & Gamble, Colgate- Palmolive and Johnson & Johnson. However, the announcement to establish the new prices, which was initially expected on January 15, has been postponed twice.
.. In January 2012, Faes Farma and Laboratorios Salvat, two Spanish pharmaceutical companies, signed a long-term agreement for Faes Farma to market three of Salvat's products in Argentina, Venezuela, Colombia, Chile and Paraguay, where Faes Farma already has a direct commercial presence.
.. In December 2011, the Venezuelan government planned to operate pharmaceutical plants in 2012 to cover the unmet demand for low-cost medicines in the country. State officials visited in Europe in December 2011 to purchase the equipment and materials necessary for the operation of the factories. They also signed agreements with partners in China, Portugal, Cuba and Colombia for the manufacture of drugs to 'make a major positive change in the industry', according to the vice minister for health services networks, José España.
BMI Economic View:
We expect an uptick in government expenditures in the run-up to the October 2012 presidential elections to drive private consumption growth to 3.0% in 2012 through more social transfers. Overall, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2012.
BMI Political View:
We believe the probability of a victory by President Hugo Chávez's has increased since the start of 2012, as has the likelihood that he will on hold on to power in the event of an opposition victory. While a cohesive opposition could put up a strong showing in October’s presidential ballot, the odds of a new president taking power appear slim.

Pharma / Arzneimittel   Marktstudie
Jahrgang:   2012
Herausgeber:   Business Monitor International Ltd.
Preis:   1,175.00€
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