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France Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012
BMI View: Despite concerted progress made on the fiscal consolidation front in the first half of 2011, the
French government’s medium-term fiscal targets remain on the optimistic side, particularly given the
deteriorating global macroeconomic backdrop and the potential need for state-led capital injections in
the domestic banking sector. Given France’s high public debt-to-GDP ratio, this raises the prospect that
the country’s sovereign creditworthiness could be called into serious doubt, which in turn would send
borrowing costs significantly higher and necessitate more aggressive fiscal tightening by the state –
targeting the pharmaceuticals and healthcare sector, which is a recipient of a large proportion of public
Headline Expenditure Projections
?? Pharmaceuticals: EUR35.01bn (US$48.66bn) in 2011 to EUR33.94bn (US$43.78bn) in 2012;
-3.1% in local currency terms and -10.0% in US dollar terms.
?? Healthcare: EUR235.30bn (US$327.06bn) in 2011 to EUR240.76bn (US$310.58bn) in 2012;
+2.3% in local currency terms and -5.0% in US dollar terms
?? Medical devices: EUR10.72bn (US$14.90bn) in 2011 to EUR11.00bn (US$14.19bn) in 2012;
+2.6% in local currency terms and -4.7% in US dollar terms.
Risk/Reward Ratings: In the Q212 Risk/Rewards Ratings (RRRs) for Western Europe, France is third.
The country’s rewards profile remains considerably less attractive than its risk score, reinforcing our view
of the country’s potential due to a stronger emphasis on the regulatory environment, which we regard as a
major factor affecting the business environment for drugmakers, rather than on the basis of real
opportunities for higher per capita drug consumption.
Key Trends And Developments
• In February 2012, the French Health Industries Strategic Advisory Board planned to ask the
General Inspectorate of France (GIF) and the General Inspectorate of Social Affairs (IGAS) to
look into the tax structure for drugmakers. The board said the country's complex tax structure is
stopping drugmakers from investing in manufacturing. The GIF and IGAS will be asked to
change the system to simplify and encourage investment incentives, following a comparison of
the country's tax structure with other European countries. Drugmakers in the country are subject
to 13 levies, apart from national and local taxes, which have been imposed to provide finances to
several health agencies and to control spending on health insurance.
• In February 2012, the Offices of the French medicines agency, AFSSAPS, were searched by
investigators after it allowed the sale of diabetes drug Mediator (benfluorex). The searches were
made in connection with the sale of Servier Laboratories' diabetes drug, which has been
withdrawn from other markets after being linked to the deaths of about 500 people since its
introduction in 1976. The founder of the company, Jacques Servier, is under investigation for
dishonest practices, deception over the drug's quality and for falsely obtaining authorisation to
BMI Economic View: We expect France to miss its fiscal consolidation targets in 2012 and 2013, largely
as a result of weaker than officially expected growth and increased financing and debt servicing costs.
While the country is likely to be stripped of its prestigious AAA credit rating, we believe the political
ramifications of this are likely to outweigh the domestic economic consequences.
BMI Political View: President Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement of a further raft of competitivenessboosting
measures, including a VAT hike and the implementation of a financial services transaction tax,
marks his opening offensive in the run up to his expected candidacy in the April 2012 presidential
election. The populist nature of the financial transaction tax is an attempt to take some of the momentum
that the polls frontrunner, Socialist Party candidate Francois Hollande, has been experiencing on the back
of a ferociously anti-financial sector campaign.
|Gesundheitspflege / Medizinprodukte||Marktstudie|
|Herausgeber:||Business Monitor International Ltd.|