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Thailand Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012
BMI View: Thailand is a moderately attractive pharmaceutical market for multinationals. On the positive side, rewards are potentially considerable, given the country’s epidemiological profile and the growing population numbers. However, the government’s stance on compulsory licences and regulatory and funding shortcomings will continue to detract from direct investment in the country’s pharmaceutical industry, especially in light of rising imports from lower-cost locations.
Headline Expenditure Projections
.. Pharmaceuticals: THB128.04bn (US$4.20bn) in 2011 to THB132.40bn (US$4.06bn) in 2012; +3.4% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast significantly lower than in Q112 on account of exchange rate fluctuations and analyst intervention.
.. Healthcare: THB446.13bn (US$14.63bn) in 2011 to THB479.06bn (US$14.70bn) in 2012; +7.4% in local currency terms and +0.4% in US dollar terms. US dollar forecast significantly lower than in Q112 on account of exchange rate fluctuations.
.. Medical devices: THB28.49bn (US$935mn) in 2011 to THB30.31bn (US$930mn) in 2012; +6.4% in local currency terms and -0.5% in US dollar terms. Forecast significantly lower than in Q112 on account of macroeconomic factors and lower historical data.
Business Environment Rating: Thailand’s Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) composite score rose by 3.1% quarter-o-quarter (q-o-q), standing at 49.1 for Q212. The score places Thailand in 11th position, out of the 18 countries surveyed in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 12th previously. Its reward and risk profiles are relatively evenly balanced, with both also falling below the regional averages. Low per capita spending on healthcare and the need for fiscal consolidation will continue to represent challenges to the development of the country’s pharmaceutical market.
Key Trends And Developments
.. The country’s Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Thai Government Pharmaceutical Organisation (GPO) plan to reduce the registration time for overseas medicines in Thailand, and also import more antibiotics, among other products. The agencies aim to prevent a shortage of medicines after drug manufacturing plants were affected by floods. The FDA secretary general, Pipat Yingseree, said the agencies will permit flood-affected pharmaceutical companies to appoint other drugmakers to temporarily manufacture drugs on their behalf. According to a ministry estimate, up to 393 drug regimens registered by the Thai FDA are experiencing shortages in the market and at hospitals after floods affected more than 10 large and mediumsized manufacturers in Bangkok and neighbouring provinces.
.. In January 2012, Chinese biotechnology company Alpha Group Holdings reported plans to build a manufacturing plant in Thailand, according to CEO Wei Gao. The facility, which will involve an investment of US$50mn, is to be built in the next two years. The company aims to capitalise on the natural herbs available in Thai provinces such as Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai. The plant will export to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
BMI Economic View: We have made some sizable forecast revisions across the board following Thailand's worst flooding in more than 50 years. Government officials have put the cost of flood damage at THB300bn, or roughly 3% of GDP, although we reckon the final sum could be significantly higher given the worse-than-expected impact on Bangkok (whose output accounts for 25% of the economy), and the fact that rainfall is forecast to remain above normal for a few more months. We have downgraded our 2011 real GDP growth forecast to 1.5% from 3.6%. Moving into 2012, it would be tempting to bump up Thailand's growth trajectory on the back of rebuilding efforts. While such activity will provide a temporary boost to investment growth - as will a spike in government spending and restocking - resources will inevitably be diverted away from other areas of the economy, such as non-flood related capital expenditure and household discretionary spending. Furthermore, the overarching threat of a slowdown in global trade next year suggests that net exports will remain a drag on headline expansion, which will be further compounded by the weakening baht. Our projection of 4.0% economic expansion in 2012 therefore remains subject to downside risks.
BMI Political View: Growing risk aversion towards emerging market assets prior to the floods had already triggered capital flight from Thailand, albeit on a manageable scale. This was witnessed by the recent sell-off across emerging Asia currencies in September 2011, which was accompanied by significant declines in foreign reserves as central banks attempt to stabilise their currencies. With the Thai economy staring at a potential recession in 2012, we expect the Thai baht to come under renewed selling pressure as investors take their capital elsewhere in search of better opportunities.
|Pharma / Arzneimittel||Marktstudie|
|Herausgeber:||Business Monitor International Ltd.|